A Flare Risk Index Informed by Select Immune Mediators in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is marked by immune dysregulation linked to varied clinical disease activity. Using a unique longitudinal cohort of SLE patients, this study sought to identify optimal immune mediators informing an empirically refined flare risk index (FRI) reflecting altered immunity prior to clinical disease flare. METHODS: Thirty-seven SLE-associated plasma mediators were evaluated by microfluidic immunoassay in 46 samples obtained in SLE patients with an imminent clinical disease flare (preflare) and 53 samples obtained in SLE patients without a flare over a corresponding period (pre-nonflare). SLE patients were selected from a unique longitudinal cohort of 106 patients with classified SLE (meeting the American College of Rheumatology 1997 revised criteria for SLE or the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics 2012 revised criteria for SLE). Autoantibody specificities, hybrid SLE Disease Activity Index (hSLEDAI) scores, clinical features, and medication usage were also compared at preflare (mean ± SD 111 ± 47 days prior to flare) versus pre-nonflare (99 ± 21 days prior to nonflare) time points. Variable importance was determined by random forest analysis with logistic regression subsequently applied to determine the optimal number and type of analytes informing a refined FRI. RESULTS: Preflare versus pre-nonflare differences were not associated with demographics, autoantibody specificities, hSLEDAI scores, clinical features, nor medication usage. Forward selection and backward elimination of mediators ranked by variable importance resulted in 17 plasma mediator candidates differentiating preflare from pre-nonflare visits. A final combination of 11 mediators best informed a newly refined FRI, which achieved a maximum sensitivity of 97% and maximum specificity of 98% after applying decision curve analysis to define low, medium, and high FRI scores. CONCLUSION: We verified altered immune mediators associated with imminent disease flare, and a subset of these mediators improved the FRI to identify SLE patients at risk of imminent flare. This molecularly informed, proactive management approach could be critical in prospective clinical trials and the clinical management of lupus.

Survival, Risk Factors, and Effect of Treatment in 101 Patients With Calciphylaxis.

OBJECTIVE: To report on the survival and the associations of treatments upon survival of patients with calciphylaxis seen at a single center. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis code of 275.49 and the keyword "calciphylaxis" in the dismissal narrative, we retrospectively identified 101 patients with calciphylaxis seen at our institution between January 1, 1999, through September 20, 2014, using a predefined, consensus-developed classification scheme. RESULTS: The average age of patients was 60 years: 81 (80.2%) were women; 68 (68.0%) were obese; 19 (18.8%) had stage 0 to 2 chronic kidney disease (CKD), 19 (18.9%) had stage 3 or 4 CKD; 63 (62.4%) had stage 5 or 5D (dialysis) CKD. Seventy-five patients died during follow-up. Six-month survival was 57%. Lack of surgical debridement was associated with insignificantly lower 6-month survival (hazard ratio [HR]=1.99; 95% CI, 0.96-4.15; P=.07) and significantly poorer survival for the entire duration of follow-up (HR=1.98; 95% CI, 1.15-3.41; P=.01), which was most pronounced in stage 5 or 5D CKD (HR=1.91; 95% CI, 1.03-3.56; P=.04). Among patients with stage 5/5D CKD, subtotal parathyroidectomy (performed only in patients with hyperparathyroidism) was associated with better 6-month (HR=0.12; 95% CI, 0.02-0.90; P=.04) and overall survival (HR= 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.87; P=.02). CONCLUSION: Calciphylaxis is associated with a high mortality rate. Significantly effective treatments included surgical debridement and subtotal parathyroidectomy in patients with stage 5/5D CKD with hyperparathyroidism. Treatments with tissue-plasminogen activator, sodium thiosulfate, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy were not associated with higher mortality.

Calciphylaxis: A Disease of Pannicular Thrombosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify coagulation risk factors in patients with calciphylaxis and the relationship between anticoagulation use and overall survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Study subjects were 101 patients with calciphylaxis seen at Mayo Clinic from 1999 to September 2014. Data including thrombophilia profiles were extracted from the medical records of each patient. Survival status was determined using patient registration data and the Social Security Death Index. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and associations were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Sixty-four of the 101 patients underwent thrombophilia testing. Of these, a complete test panel was performed in 55 and a partial panel in 9. Severe thrombophilias observed in 60% (33 of 55) of the patients included antiphospholipid antibody syndrome protein C, protein S, or antithrombin deficiencies or combined thrombophilias. Of the 55 patients, severe thrombophilia (85%, 23 of 27) was noted in patients who were not on warfarin at the time of testing (27). Nonsevere thrombophilias included heterozygous factor V Leiden (n=2) and plasminogen deficiency (n=1). For the comparison of survival, patients were divided into 3 treatment categories: Warfarin (n=63), other anticoagulants (n=20), and no anticoagulants (n=18). There was no statistically significant survival difference between treatment groups. CONCLUSION: Laboratory testing reveals a strikingly high prevalence of severe thrombophilias in patients with calciphylaxis, underscoring the importance of congenital and acquired thrombotic propensity potentially contributing to the pathogenesis of this disease. These findings may have therapeutic implications; however, to date, survival differences did not vary by therapeutic choice.